Breaking : US-Iran Conflict Enters Seventh Month: 3 Experts Predict What Happens Next
WASHINGTON: As the conflict between the United States and Iran enters its seventh month, prospects for an imminent agreement appear unlikely, with both sides continuing to exchange strikes and uncompromising rhetoric.
The US has moved into a new phase of a sweeping economic blockade targeting Iran and countries that trade with it, aiming to force Tehran to negotiate and to stop attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The key commercial shipping route has been effectively closed since the US and Israel started the conflict in February.
A Memorandum of Understanding signed in June, which was meant to result in a permanent ceasefire and a deal within 60 days, has now expired.
The BBC asked three experts how the conflict may play out.
Senior Fellow Jason Campbell of the Middle East Institute said the US is using military and economic pressure to weaken Iran’s negotiating power, but Washington’s strategic objectives remain unclear.
Other analysts warn the situation has settled into a dangerous "no war, no peace" stalemate. The US is focused on keeping oil tankers moving safely through the Gulf, while Iran is using control over the Strait of Hormuz as leverage.
Iran’s oil exports have collapsed to around 240,000 barrels per day in August from 2 million bpd in March due to the US naval blockade. Meanwhile, both sides have carried out limited strikes this week, including US attacks on Larak Island and Iranian strikes on US bases in the region.
With diplomacy stalled and both sides unwilling to return to all-out war but still using force, the central question is whether this containment strategy will hold — or trigger another major escalation.
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